Over 520,000 lost their jobs in the last two months and retail sales collapsed, but before he even meets with his economic team, President-Elect Obama has received lots of advice lately, too much of it warning him not to attempt the agenda he ran on and frantically warning him not to believe he has the progressive mandate John McCain so conveniently defined for him.
How predictably expedient that those Very Serious Villagers who just lost and who've been wrong for the last eight years would now urge Obama not to do what he's promised. But Economics Nobelist Paul Krugman, who has the tiny advantage of having been right when most others were wrong, has the perfect reply: "Ignore the trolls and go for it."
Krugman lays out a strong case that Obama's agenda is not only smart, moral politics; it's good economic medicine for what ails the nation's economy:
. . . Mr. Obama ran on a platform of guaranteed health care and tax breaks for the middle class, paid for with higher taxes on the affluent. John McCain denounced his opponent as a socialist and a "redistributor," but America voted for him anyway. That's a real mandate.
What about the argument that the economic crisis will make a progressive agenda unaffordable?
Well, there's no question that fighting the crisis will cost a lot of money. . . .
But standard textbook economics says that it's O.K., in fact appropriate, to run temporary deficits in the face of a depressed economy. Meanwhile, one or two years of red ink, while it would add modestly to future federal interest expenses, shouldn't stand in the way of a health care plan that, even if quickly enacted into law, probably wouldn't take effect until 2011.. . .
But it would be fair for the new administration to point out how conservative ideology, the belief that greed is always good, helped create this crisis. What F.D.R. said in his second inaugural address — "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" — has never rung truer.
And right now happens to be one of those times when the converse is also true, and good morals are good economics. Helping the neediest in a time of crisis, through expanded health and unemployment benefits, is the morally right thing to do; it's also a far more effective form of economic stimulus than cutting the capital gains tax. Providing aid to beleaguered state and local governments, so that they can sustain essential public services, is important for those who depend on those services; it's also a way to avoid job losses and limit the depth of the economy's slump.
So a serious progressive agenda — call it a new New Deal — isn't just economically possible, it's exactly what the economy needs.
The bottom line, then, is that Barack Obama shouldn't listen to the people trying to scare him into being a do-nothing president. He has the political mandate; he has good economics on his side. You might say that the only thing he has to fear is fear itself. [emphasis added]
Shorter Krugman: "Ignore the Village trolls; go for a new New Deal. It's good economics."
I like that, and I'd add one more thing. It's also the essence of what Obama had been saying in recent speeches. I think he's there, and so are the America people. Let's do it.
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and who is obama to ignore a nobel loreat?
I am pretty certain krugaman’s writing will find the ear of obama
I sure hope obama doesn’t mean to move more to the right, if he moves more to the right he will be moving away from the center, that’s the main thing obama needs to realize
Nationalize the oil companies and utilities. They are the machines of brigand capitalism and unfair profiteering on the backs of the people. While the world plunges into depression, and millions of Americans struggle to heat their homes this winter, EXXON makes 27+billion$ in profit..Excuse me, but there’s something wrong with that picture. EXXON doesn’t even have any oil for chrissake!
Which leads me to the Alaska oils fields etc. The Saudi Arabian kings claim ownership of the oil under their country and the Muslim people get little benefit from the mineral wealth of their country. OK…their business.
But why, when we talk about oil that is in America’s federal lands do we assume that EXXON and their associates own it? That oil belongs to the American people not EXXON. They should be paid a modicum profit to drill and deliver it, but not be allowed to set prices or control supply….and keep all the money.
the oil they refine is already nationalized, it is our product not theirs, they pay rent for the right to dig it up and sell it
this is why it is a rediculous strategy that we allow them to auction our stuff and the market and force us to buy it back
that system has to change
we need to give them a fair markup and that’s it, if they don’t like that mark up then we give the refinery to someone who does
enough of having to bid against china for my own stuff, I HATE when that happens
Dugg!
Dugg, thanks for the link.
Thanks Scarecrow!
agreed.
and also, i think, when his poll numbers started going up. obama may owe his win, at least in part, to those recent statements. hope it wasn’t just campaign rhetoric and that, as you say, “he’s there.”
the choice of treasury secretary will be a big clue. will it be a neolib and/or a wall street shill? or will we get a change? fingers crossed.
i’m no fan of sachs, but this is not bad - What Obama Needs To Do: It’s time for a new macroeconomics.
I know this is heresy, but I have the feeling that a lot of neolibs are finding it convenient to proclaim a new religion. Like Ian, I wish the counsel of advisers included more of those who were “right,” but for now, we have to hope old dogs actually do learn.
not heresy in my book. i agree about the convenience of the proclamations - and for that reason find them suspect.
i disagree however about having to hope. i may want to hope, but that is how we get suckered (again and again), and i’m tired of being charlie brown to a D politician’s lucy.
if there is any genuine learning going on, the folks who were right will be welcomed into the inner circles. if they are not, that is a big clue i’m not going to overlook.
Thanks for the article, I had problems with your link.
What Obama Needs To Do
No shill that’s for sure. The question is who in the hell can do it?
Great post, Scarecrow!
Does the NYT prohibit links to their articles? Or am I just missing the linky to the original?
FunnyD
Barack, listen to Krugman. You could be as great a president as FDR.
Its also the time to do it now.
Believe what he will but keeping things the same will not work.
I just turn the channel when I hear a weenie talking about “center right country” or any of that bat shit crazy stuff.
Wake the hell up now Obama. If you think you can keep doing the same shit over and get a different result…umm take a look at the economy.
Scarecrow,
In the paraphrased words of FDR We need to “make him do it” Now is the time for the NEW New Deal. What the titans forgot was that a stable middle class with chances of social mobility made everyone a winner.
Or just un-privatize what has been done to the military, security, war machine, etc. As a start.
Yeah and the money is ours as well even though the government pays the FED to print it and loan it…
He has a chance to be the SAVIOUR! That is the prob with the rest of the christian society. I think they just enjoy the suffering. I don’t get it.
Hope won’t pay much of a bill for anyone. From the people I am talking to what is happening is hopefully* more of what Obama says he actually wants. For people to realize that they have to participate and help.
The job has only started, now everyone needs to really get into gear.
We really need a social movement pushing Krugman’s message so Obama can say, “I’m just doin’ what the people want…and need.”
No more trickle down/crapped on. The best place to start a fire is at the bottom and let it burn up.
I like it. How to do it without alienating the rest of the folks?
It has to be legal and grass roots. Education is my suggestion.
I’m just an “idea guy”. I throw ‘em out there for the smart peeps to implement.
There’s already enough internet infrastructure to get it started. Something along the lines of Strage Bedfellows but on a much grander scale.
(Anyone know anyone good at herding cats?
Education yes. Obama has to take the role of teacher as FDR did. He has the skills to do it.
(Just remember, we’re also dealing with folks who think Africa’s a country. )
Baby steps. Very fast baby steps.
No Sir,
What I meant is beefing up this country’s educational system. There are lots of decent people in the southern states who have no idea that there is anything beyond 50 miles from their house. It is the gov’t responsibity to educate each citizen so that that they can be productive. Knowledge is the key. It will cost $$$
We think alike, Sir. It is a pleasure to meet you.
Not so much. The article is titled what Obama needs to do and almost the whole thing is a 40 year history.
Then he makes the following statement:
WTF? That makes no sense whatsoever. How could the U.S. possibly pay for its investments? There is NO saving in the U.S. economy. Guess Sachs never heard about the paradox of thrift: the more you try to lift saving by spending less, the worse the economy does and the lower savings goes. But then there are plenty of elementary economics principles that Sachs is unaware of.
That was a well written article in that it took a larger view of the economy and our approach to it.
Why thanks, and you too. Education is vital. Look how the GI Education Bill paid off. What is it? Something for every $1 paid in GI benefits for education, $8 was pumped back into the economy? Maybe that’s a tad high but not by much.
Anybody else noticing how many more Af-Amer talking heads there are on TV in the last few months?
OT: Wasn’t it refreshing to see a Presidential figure on TV talking and not having to cringe for fear of hearing something absolutely batcrap crazy?
Long ago, far away…I remember
Now you are in my area. Okay, he has no training in econ. Give him a little time. He is a politician.
You are way ahead of the curve but that’s where we need to go.
I was talking about Jeffrey Sachs, not Obama. If you think Sachs is not an economist, I might agree with you even though he is a professor of the subject.
When we have uncontrolled growth inside our bodies, we call it cancer. When we have uncontrolled growth in our economy, we call it expansion.
I think what we are experiencing right now is closer to economic cancer. If a cell is pushed and pulled back and forth, it will break down and it cannot replicate. Over the past 30 years, the top of the cell we call America has tried to distance itself from the bottom. It is broken. And it will take faith, brains, and action if we are to heal this 200+ year old organisim. I think Obama has all the necessary parts to pull it off. I sure hope so.
i understood that to mean that gov services would eventually have to be paid for with taxes. but perhaps i was reading into it what i wanted to see? after all, sachs’ name should never be mentioned wo thinking of the russian shock therapy.
need more skepticism.
Isn’t it strange how the money follows the trend? Won’t be long that the system corrupts that wave too. It is a problem.
I think that’s what he meant too, but he didn’t say that. And the problem is “sometime soon.” Raising taxes enough to pay for infrastructure spending sometime soon would make a bad recession into a depression. You can’t get there from here sometime soon.
Now I’m as much of a skeptic & pessimist as the best, but right now I just want to enjoy the diversity. *g*
Yes, I believe he does. It is a good time to be alive in the US. Please do not let up in your observations. That is what makes US strong.
OT
Talk about exaggerated expectations for Obama!
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/.....ith-obama/
Wish Krugman had been on Obama economic advisory board. Not sure why. As to the conventional wisdom of the corporate media and Republicon surrogates advising a right of center approach I would just say f#ck them!
I notice not only the number, but the quality. Overall, blacks have proven, given the chance, they are as good if not better than whites as atheletes, performers, soldiers, and so on. Now, I think we are going to see that they can also out-perform whites at being President too.
Anybody hear that Brit Hume is leaving Fox! Wants to spend more time with the family.
I wouldn’t argue with you on these points but I think it is good to begin discussing some of the wider issues. What I liked about the Sachs article was that it said Reaganomics failed. Obvious I know but it still needs to be said. As you yourself have pointed out, redirecting money into the middle class will create a stabler and wider base for economic growth. This kind of focusing resources away from non-productive enterprises (we now distinguish between Wall Street and the real economy) to investment in the middle class, healthcare, education, and infrastructure is important to re-establishing our economy. So in that sense there is money for investment if it is well used.
Yes, gov’t can only do so much. It is US that does the rest.
I had noticed that conservative African-Americans were the most over represented demographic I have ever seen on tv.
-G
That is technically incorrect. Any oil pumped from public lands has a royalty attached to it. It may be pennies per 10M barrels but it’s still a payment and that makes it theirs, not ours. The oil industry also leases the the land so that’s another payment. The fault lies in Congress practically giving it to them for next to nothing.
Except for athletics, where certain genetic characteristics are important, I think of the rest of human skills falling on the normal distribution (bell shaped curve) for all groups of humans, given similar environments. (You can take that muddled sentence out & shoot it if you like.) Don’t like studies that try to prove one group is better than another & those that have been done have been pretty much disproved.
the sachs link was from this morning… here is another one:
roubini: The Economic Mess and Financial Disaster that Obama Will Inherit
Bottom up. That’s what we need now. Ifrastructure +++++++++
Yes, the part about Reaganomics failing was good and our side needs to say it over & over. But I don’t want Sachs to be the spokesperson. Too much baggage.
So true but the corporate media hacks were less than satisfied. “He was late, Bush was always punctual”, “If his future pressers are as short as today’s the press isn’t going to be happy!”, “Is the Obama administration to secretive?”. The U.S. was able to vote out the corrupt, disengenous, partisan and ineffective Republicons but there seems to be little the public can do about a corrupt and complicit corporate media.
Yep. Noticed that too. Guess they think whites can’t criticize blacks.
Swopa is up at the Mothership!
“Mutts Like Me”: President-Elect Barack Obama’s First Press Conference
Or Latin America or Poland.
I don’t like those studies either — phobias usually are in the mind of the beholder. The point I was making was “given the opportunity“. I think that Obama has the chance to be and will be a great president. As a former civil rights economist, I do think (hope) the barriers will continue to fall. The faces of the pundits are sign that we are moving in that direction.
Unless you live in southern US.
sorry about the delay in replying…. on the phone with att and reading a bit whenever i get put on hold.
I say we can too tax our way back to a stable middle class fueled econony. Everyone just needs to pay their freakin’ fair share.
When 1% is grabbing 50% of the income and holds 90% of the wealth, well, smack me on the ass and call me a socialist. Spread some of that shit around in the form of higher wagers for workers, tuition for students and returning vets, day care for working parents and on and on and on…
Sure didn’t hear anyone screaming socialism when they spread it up to the top 1%. Socialite-ism maybe but not socialism.
ok. that was frustrating. got a real person on the line, but it was one who had no idea what services or equipment were available.
damn. looks like i missed the thread.
Well hell. Everyone’s gone. I take it all back.
Pssst… I do it all the time.
booradley @ 11 - thanks.
californiarealitycheck @ 12 - stiglitz? bair?
hugh @29 - i’d like the country to have that wider conversation - not just on reaganomics, which apparently we are ready to hear. but also things like how do we measure economic progress and what does that require.
ecahn @ 39 - so begin to tax economic activity that does not contribute real growth or progress. not all at once (transitions matter as you’ve said wrt regulation, but i think so wrt taxes as well), but over time.
hugh @ - re money for investment, building weapons for example may be necessary for defense but is not the best investment. am i wrong to think that we spend an awful lot of money on stuff that is not very productive?
Agree!
“Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society.”
Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr…. A Republican.
Here’s to serendipity.
* Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy laid the groundwork for Obama’s campaign in the “Red” states.
* Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth” laid down the challenge to re-invent the American economy that is very much in line with things Obama has been saying about re-investing in green technology, infrastructure, etc.
I think America is ready.
Bob in HI
It’s Nobel laureate. Like laurels the Greeks and Romans used to bestow on heroes. And Paul Krugman is one of mine. Obama, too. Thank God I lived to see Nov. 4.
This may seem old-fashioned, but there is an old-fashioned definition of ownership which says that ownership is related to the development of resources. In that way an absentee landlord is hardly an owner, despite having title to a property. But, a company which develops a property and brings out oil has an argument for ownership. That’s probably one reason the government leases ‘public’ lands or mineral rights. It’s one reason we offer leases to oil companies in Alaska and we now argue for the “use it or lose it” idea to tie them to that old-fashioned concept. It’s also a reason I suggested we consider patents that way. How many times have I heard people say oil companies are buying up patents on more efficient ways to use energy, just so they can prevent them from being used. They sell more oil if it’s wasted.
To say oil companies should be paid a ‘modicum profit’ ignores the entire system of economics the great Western empire is built upon. Why should you alone decide how much profit they deserve for their efforts to bring the resource to market? What if someone else has a better use for the oil and wants to pay more? Shouldn’t they be allowed to pay more to get what they want? Would you deny someone the opportunity to pay a higher price? Sure, you want to deny oil companies the ability to control the price, so you can keep it low, but would you deny someone the opportunity to pay a higher price to ensure they get the oil? Don’t muck with this basic arrangement. It works in a lot of situations.
I agree they (and nobody else either) should be allowed to set prices and product supply. That too mucks with the free market. Of course, it requires law and regulation to protect against those contrivances.
Funny thing though, if some people do contrive to control a market it very often backfires. They have to be reminded by bursting balloons to beware of what they wish for. Same goes for politically lefty people.
We’ve had too much cash flow out of the country (for oil) this year and that drained the cash flow in our real economy. On top of that there’s the recent credit crisis and that’s slowing cash flow to. Aside from these was there anything causing the economy to slow? Not that I know of.
So, the answer is to ramp up cash flow a bit here and there to bring business back.
How to do it is important too. If you just print money, then you’re creating inflation for the future. Once banks free up cash and it flows back through the system there would be a flood and quickly rising prices.
The reduction of dependence on oil will occur slower and we can adjust money flows as that occurs.
I still like the idea of a short-term stimulus/infrastructure package from Congress because it’s not just cash, it’s real physical improvements and it helps people who are often the first hurt by a slowing economy.
I think it’s going to be a long-ish recession and so a huge lump of money up front might not be best. Probably several medium-sized lumps of money over the next few quarters will be most helpful to keep things stabilized and slowly growing. Going a bit at a time will also avoid over-shooting it’s effects.
I’d like to see Obama name his economic people and have them put their imprimatur on the plan before Congress send it to Bush.
Oh, I forgot to mention, when Obama begins slowing our involvement in Iraq that will save us some cash outflow and it would mean a bit less need for stimulus spending.
Who should head Interior to lobby against giving it away?
Krugman isn’t going to pitch in he is going to make the poor people (federal reserve slaves/bailout explotees) do it for him. I am for obama winning, but the intellectual elites that are talking about “CHANGE” and “hope” is really that they are afraid to say that they don’t want to be the ones working or rebuilding the country, just to give the orders while they laugh and call the slaves “stupid” on Bill Maher.
Truly, the party of change isn’t here yet. The democrats are the party of opposite, meaning instead of dumb ignorance its intellectual ignorance, but not Americans at all. All these Mayors from Newark and Presidents from Illinois talking about how we are in a new America now aren’t leaders, they are just handed the whip.
Get in there and lead and lead by example. Then maybe you’ll get people to follow socialist programs. Until then you are no better Krugman, no better at all. You will sit there at your computer and do nothing.
Pathetic human being. Kiss my A%$
Can anyone explain why Krugman is being ignored (apparently) by Obama? Why isn’t he on the economic advisory board? I would like to see Krugman as Secretary of Treasury.